Fábio Carvalho is set to become the newest member of the Liverpool squad as the reports come out today saying that Liverpool and Fulham agreed to a 5 million fee plus 2.7m add ons and Fábio will join Liverpool in the summer.
Carvalho being only 19 and the fee being this low already guarantees that this transfer will be a success. But, the heights that Carvalho can reach are much higher than most would initially think based on the price tag and the team he is coming from.
That’s enough introduction though. Here is my player profile of Fábio Carvalho.
Fábio Carvalho has been deployed as mostly a number 10 or a left sided 8 for Fulham this campaign.
When he is deployed as an 8, he abuses the left half-space. Drops deep in the halfspace to receive. Carries the ball in the same area to progress the team. In the final 3rd, combines with those around him and makes runs into halfspaces ala Man City’s favorite action in the final 3rd.
His version of the #10 position isn’t the one that comes deep and demands the ball to feet to then facilitate ala Mesut Ozil. He plays much more like a second striker running off of the prolific target man Mitrovic for Fulham this year.
This role explains his very low pass volume relative to his position since he play much more ahead of the ball than most #10s.
This graph shows the percentiles that Carvalho is in compared to Championship 10s and wingers.
We can easily observe the “second striker” role of Carvalho on this graph as well. His volume of shots are one of the highest in the whole league. But, the quality of his shooting is up there with the best too despite his very high volume.
His non-penalty xG and goal numbers also show us that he gets into good shooting positions very regularly but also converts them at a high level as well.
This goal of Fábio Carvalho against Guardiola’s Man City in the FA cup explains his role very well.
A pass from Tosin the cb (who I really, really like as a complete side note) straight to Mitrovic who drops deep to progress the team. Carvalho who sees Mitrovic’s movement, at first slightly creeps towards the last line of Man City defense.
When Mitrovic plays a great first time ball to former red Harry Wilson, Carvalho starts his run but doesn’t fully sprint in order to stay in the blindside of John Stones. And, in the last second darts in front of the goal.
His finish is really simple here, but it is only possible because of the great detail he put on his movement before the shot.
Another intelligent run by Carvalho here. Recognizes the huge space between the 2 defenders, stays blindside to the cb, and times his run to perfection to stay onside. This time finish is impressive too, powerful first time shot to the near corner.
This might be my favorite clip of his. Shows his teammate where to pass and makes a third man run at the same time. Immediately asks for the ball, and a powerful low-driven cross with his first touch. Sublime.
Wins the ball in the middle of the field with intensity. Doesn’t waste any touches to slip in his teammate. Starts his run immediately. Recognizes both defenders running to the goal line and bends his run. Cool first time finish with a perfect placement as well.
We discussed the movement and a little bit of finishing. How about his carrying and ballstriking?
This part will give all Liverpool fans flashbacks of prime Coutinho, and rightfully so. Let’s dive in.
Receives under pressure. Gets past his marker with his first touch, plays a progressive pass.
Gets the ball in his own half. Recognizes that central area is crowded. Destroys a defender, plays a runner in behind after only one more touch. He very rarely wastes his touches.
Run to the halfspace. Quick, easy pickout for Mitrovic to tap in.
A powerful drive starting from deep left halfspace, ending in zone 14 (the middle area just outside the penalty area). And, a great curler to the far post to finish it off. Coutinho’s signature move.
Another Coutinho-esque clip. Starting from the left touchline, driving inside with force. Combining with the number 9 and another calm finish. But, this time it’s to the near post. Which shows variety in his shot placement as well which is really important for any forward.
Just to drive home the point.
Add his only PL goal here just because.
The game time he’ll get in his early Liverpool career will most likely be as a right sided 8, the most advanced role in Liverpool’s midfield. And, some cup minutes at LW too probably.
But, I suspect that Klopp has a Firmino-like long term plan for Fábio Carvalho. Turning him from a #10 to a false 9.
The central forward that drops deep to overload the midfield. The cf that drifts wide to combine with the infamous Liverpool wingers. The cf that balances the front three with his ball retention and patience on the ball between the two of the most direct wingers in the world.
Carvalho has the technical and mental basics of a Liverpool false 9 down already. His understanding of space and tempo is outstanding. His technical quality in tight spaces is apparent. His ambipedality (both footedness) helps him play with seemingly endless angles and allows him to drift to both sides.
These two location graphs of Fábio’s ‘chances created’ and ‘chance-creating carries’ show his ambipedality and the endless angles he operates in.
Quick lefty banger for the weak foot argument.
Some possible worries about his transformation to false 9 might be his height and physicality in general.
Having watched him a couple of times, I can say that his balance really helps him in the duels. Not to the extent of a Messi obviously, but his build is in that same mold.
Here, we have a 18 year old Carvalho getting past a very physical Salisu who is one of the best cb prospects in the PL. Shows his balance and low body strength a bit.
He is also only 19 years old and his physical development will be taken care of with Liverpool’s training and coaching so an improvement in that department is nearly a sure thing.
When it comes to heading, Liverpool forwards showed us again and again that heading ability and height is not as strongly correlated as widely thought. In this clip, Carvalho executes a great header despite his small frame. His timing of the jump and the power he generates is quite impressive. And, he will get better at heading with coaching as every Liverpool forward did the last few years.
His pressing numbers (mostly down to team style anyways) and intensity/willingness is far from a weakness in his game as well. So, he should fit in well with Liverpool’s high pressing system too.
This doesn’t obviously mean that he can’t be a great midfielder for Liverpool. Carvalho as an interior can have a -17/18 Ox-like effect while being better in tight spaces. His carrying, both footedness, ability to both receive between the lines and make runs behind will be very useful from the cm position.
Whatever position Carvalho ends up playing for Liverpool in his peak, one thing is sure: Liverpool got a bargain for Carvalho at only around 7.5m.
Liverpool keep making good decisions in the market and they keep on adding talent to their already top level squad. And, Fábio Carvalho is the latest instance of that.
